Wildlife · Mexico · autumn
Monarch Migration in Sierra Chincua
Seasonal monarch butterfly staging and overwintering sanctuaries, tracked from thermal cues and conservation windows.
Readiness
Medium confidence0
Season opens in 6 days
Live summary
As of 9 Nov 2026, Monarch Migration readiness in Sierra Chincua, Mexico is 0 out of 100, phase dormant. Accumulated growing degree days since 15 Oct 2026 are 126.0 against a peak threshold of 420.0 at base 5°C. The timing model places peak on 30 Jan 2027. Mean cloud cover over the next three days is 53%.
- Readiness
- 0 / 100
- Status
- Dormant
- Confidence
- Medium confidence
- Evidence type
- Forecast
- Model
- Growing degree days
- Timing
- Season opens in 6 days
- Estimated peak window
- 22 Jan 2027 – 7 Feb 2027
- Climatological peak
- 25 Jan 2027
- Adjusted peak
- 30 Jan 2027
- Accumulated GDD
- 126.0 of 420.0
- Planetary K-index
- n/a
- NDVI
- n/a
- Cloud cover, next 3 days
- 53%
- Coordinates
- 19.67° N, 100.28° W
- Updated
- 9 Nov 2026, 08:38 UTC
Warmth moved the peak 5 days later, to 30 Jan 2027.
Fourteen-day outlook
Projected readiness for each day. Botanical and wildlife bars use forecast temperature. Meteor shower bars combine stream activity, lunar phase, and forecast cloud cover. Aurora bars use the NOAA 3-day Kp forecast when available and a quiet-oval baseline with forecast cloud cover for days 4–14.
Mon 9
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-09
50% cld
Tue 10
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-10
47% cld
Wed 11
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-11
63% cld
Thu 12
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-12
70% cld
Fri 13
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-13
61% cld
Sat 14
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-14
68% cld
Sun 15
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-15
45% cld
Mon 16
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-16
27% cld
Tue 17
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-17
39% cld
Wed 18
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-18
66% cld
Thu 19
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-19
40% cld
Fri 20
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-20
8% cld
Sat 21
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-21
31% cld
Sun 22
0 out of 100 on 2026-11-22
19% cld
Field notes & historical context
High-altitude oyamel fir sanctuaries in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve host dense overwintering colonies from November through March.
Eastern and western North American monarchs migrate up to 4,500 km as autumn daylength shortens and temperatures cool, clustering on oyamel firs in Michoacán and coastal groves in California.
19.67° N, 100.28° W · America/Mexico_City
Sources & data freshness
Forecast · Medium confidence · Updated 9 Nov 2026, 08:38 UTC
- Open-Meteo ERA5 & Forecast
Daily max/min temperatures (GDD base 5°C) and 14-day outlook
- CONANP / Xerces Society Monarch Conservation
Sanctuary overwintering windows and conservation monitoring
Safety & responsible visiting
Wild sightings are never guaranteed. Stay strictly on marked sanctuary trails, keep silence near roosting clusters, never use flash photography, and never touch or collect resting butterflies.
Natural phenomena depend on live weather, local access rules, and habitat conditions. Verify local advisories before travelling.
Ground-truth provenance
Community reportField observations for Sierra Chincua
Community observations supplement satellite and weather models with eye-level reports. Every submission is tagged as a Community report with provenance and moderation status—never blended silently into automated readiness scores.
No community field reports have been logged for Sierra Chincua in this session yet.
Related places
Other Monarch Migration regions on the index.